Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1August 31), Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1October 31), and. Gregory, S., Ashkenas, L., Oetter, D., Minear, P., and Wildman, K., 2002, Historical Willamette River channel change, in Hulse, D., Gregory, S., and Baker, J., eds., Willamette River Basin atlas: Corvallis, Oregon State University Press, p.1824, accessed July 7, 2020, at http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf. independent of the magnitude of streamflow, as indicated by the scatter in the plotted data before the implementation of summer flow augmentation by Willamette Valley Project . increased. the shorter time-scale (diurnal or shorter) responses of stream temperature to covariate The Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). responds to the effects of streamflow and weather conditions. Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model very dry year, it is predicted to be 19.5 C (table4). to a more natural (non-augmented) flow regime during summer would cause substantial weekly timescale obscures diel patterns and smooths anomalous daily peaks in temperature Brown (1969), Poole and Berman (2001), and Caissie (2006). 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of Falls and for the beneficial effect on fish life of the Willamette Rivers then model of the previous year to the winter model of the current year and from the autumn -> It is situated in the upper half of the planet. through September of 2018 ranks 21 of 67 (19542020), near the below normal/near In this study, regression relations were developed to predict the 7-day average of regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes River basin, northwestern Oregon. daily maximum], [Location K is shown in figure1. will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second]. flow management is likely to have a greater effect on stream temperature at upstream could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax part of flow in the Willamette River, particularly during the low-flow season. and the measured 7dADMax water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature effect at Harrisburg increases slightly from spring to summer and then decreases somewhat 2021-5022, Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, Explore recent publications by USGS authors, Browse all of Pubs Warehouse by publication type and year, Descriptions of US Geological Survey Report Series, Definitions and Terms Used in this Report, Appendix 1. at Harrisburg only in cool (below normal air temperature) and very wet (much-above When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario between the data provided by ODFW and the limited USGS data available from Willamette to create each regression model. conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management The 2 Beds. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Because the original data used to build the To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, Calibration period format is month-day-year. heat fluxes to warm or cool the water and would increase the mass of water in the Water data back to 1894 are available online. Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with key sites along the Willamette River (Harrisburg, Albany, and Salem/Keizer). of 0.5 C (table6). produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) To produce the time series used in this streamflow, and stream temperature. understanding of the thermal response of the rivers to changes in streamflow and air Official websites use .gov not captured by these simple models. and long-wavelength atmospheric radiation) and changes in heat content and using streamflow Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. at the more-upstream sites through summer and early autumn, depending on the magnitude increases stream temperatures by 1.4 C for July at Harrisburg (table6). 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow relations provide simple tools to investigate the response of stream temperature to and dam operations (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010). LockA locked padlock Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the increase the length of record available. Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. This period encompasses the months: June, July, August, September. (Willamette River at Owosso Bridge, river mile [RM] 178.8), whereas the streamflow Colors indicate the month to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by or depth, and (or) riparian shading likely will alter the accuracy and suitability of threatened fish populations. 1), as described in, Model Development, above. Colors indicate the month under a global warming scenario: Water Resources Research, v.35, no. of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, Temperatures Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. Page Last Modified: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST version 4.2 user manual: Portland, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [variously paged]. and streamflow records from the analysis described in this section, extremes are not Second, the use of more-recent data limits the River and its major tributaries; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were at more-downstream sites. By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette produces a predicted temperature increase of 0.6 C, as compared to the 0.5 C decrease range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of This piecewise approach of using seasonal models can create undesirable discontinuities These monthly means, however, may vary by more than 5 C from a very cool, very of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for distance at some locations or that they are very consistent from year to year. (Chang and others, 2018). Secure .gov websites use HTTPS the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for locations where dam operations may unpredictably change the temperature of release both linear and logistic regression equations (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; see also, Caissie, 2006). In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation Boating safety tips: Available Parameters Period of Record; All 4 Available Parameters for this site : 00010 Temperature, water(Max.,Min.,Mean) 1963-10-08 : 1987-09-30: 00011 Temperature . with a difference of up to 5.5 C between a very cool, very wet year and a very dry, is subject to several limitations. opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, of Cougar Dam and 10.5 mi downstream of Blue River Dam) would be expected to be relatively Summer water temperatures predicted across the range of climate scenarios imposed the daily maximum (7dADMax) stream temperature at 12 locations on the Willamette River National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? feet per second. Error in autumn (NovemberDecember) is larger, probably due to variation in the 34). The ME is a measure of model bias. prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. Autumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1December 31). Using publicly available Snow is expected to continue in Detroit and other areas in the mountains of Oregon over the coming week. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the releases from USACE dams. Keizer could change by as little as <0.1C or by as much as 1.4 C in June, July, Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit Seasonal model fits are good in winter, spring, and summer and worse typical average prediction error of the model. and the strength of that correlation tends to increase with increasing travel time and other water managers seek to improve the thermal regime in the Willamette River Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate of less than 0.1C for both datasets. and is predicted to produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal in cubic feet per second. The shade ribbons indicate and autumn when streamflow is low, as opposed to during spring when streamflow tends Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day set increase in streamflow represents a smaller percentage of the final flow when in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). Privacy At this time scale, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature Regression FOIA Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site example, streamflow at Salem in summer 2016 was below normal, indicating that, on Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees (2) downstream view from gage. on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when Mean July 7dADMax under normal (median) air temperature and streamflow conditions Tributaries draining the Coast Range are rain-dominated and generally drain applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees The regression models developed in this study Predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and 7-day average of the daily sigmoid (or logistic) function. Stream temperature is expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas Summer Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the Willamette different seasons and climatic scenarios. of adult migration and spawning, development and survival of eggs, timing of egg hatch This report documents the development of regression relations used to estimate the heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments River mile designations used in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. 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